PM Dear Dairy: Fish or Cut Bait Edition

Well well, look what we have here.  This is a longer-term chart of the S&P 500 going back to its all-time high in 2007.  I stumbled on this today and hadn’t realized we had gotten this high.  In technical circles this is a big deal.  First of all it’s a weekly chart and seen to be more important than daily or hourly versions.  Second, as you can see, this is our third test of the line, somewhat more significant than the second time out.  (If you’re new at this, this downward sloping line is a “resistance” line that can hamper further advances.)

We shall see.  My own sense is that this line does in fact have significance, and even if it does eventually break through to the upside, it will take a week or two to accomplish.  If it does succeed in jumping to light speed, it signals higher prices for some time, and we can monitor the progress by watching the line.  If the line holds, they bears are in luck, because the line is descending and further “tests” will occur at lower price levels.  Time will tell.

Tomorrow is the big NFP release.  As the Bespoke group has mentioned many times, the market tends to do well when the number is “as expected.”  The consensus is for an addition of 140,000 jobs.  We shall see.  In the meantime, a friend pointed out today that the past eight NFP days have been losers for stocks.  That’s a streak that’s meant to be broken.